Published on Dec 24, 2025
If there’s one phrase Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell loves to repeat, it’s this: the Fed is “data dependent.”
And lately? The data has been speaking loud and clear.
Inflation is easing, job growth is slowing, and the economy is showing enough softness that the Fed’s December rate cut made a lot of sense. But now, the big question is whether the Fed will cut rates again at the next meeting on January 28—or whether they’ll pause and let things simmer.
For homebuyers and homeowners in Lincoln, Gold River, and Folsom, this matters because Fed policy affects borrowing costs across the entire economy. While the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, its actions influence the bond market, lender pricing, and buyer confidence—which all play a role in what happens with home loan rates.
Let’s break down what’s happening, and what it could mean for your next mortgage move.
The Fed lowered the Fed Funds Rate in December again, bringing the target range down to 3.50%–3.75%. That’s good news for borrowers because it signals easing policy.
But markets aren’t fully convinced the Fed keeps cutting.
Current investor expectations suggest:
73% chance the Fed holds rates steady on January 28
27% chance of another 0.25% cut
Looking further ahead to March, forecasts are split between a hold or another cut.
In markets like Gold River and Folsom, where home prices can push affordability limits, even a small shift in rates can make a noticeable difference in monthly payments. In Lincoln, where many buyers are first-time homeowners or moving up into newer communities, rate movement can affect how competitive buyers feel comfortable being.
Bottom line: The Fed may pause—but the door is still open for more rate relief.
The most recent delayed job reports painted a softer picture of the labor market.
Here’s what stood out:
October payrolls fell by 108,000
November payrolls rose by only 64,000
Prior months were revised downward by 59,000
Unemployment rose from 4.4% to 4.6%
And the broader unemployment measure (called U-6) climbed to 8.7%, the highest since 2017 (excluding the pandemic years).
But the biggest concern?
Full-time jobs dropped by 983,000
Part-time jobs increased by around 1,000,000
That shift usually means people are taking whatever work they can—not because they want part-time, but because full-time opportunities are harder to secure.
When the job market weakens, the Fed gets pressure to lower rates to prevent things from slipping further. That’s part of why markets still believe more cuts could be coming—even if January ends up being a pause.
For buyers in Lincoln, sellers in Gold River, or anyone refinancing in Folsom, labor softness often supports the conditions that lead to lower mortgage rates over time.
Now for the biggest headline: inflation came in cooler than forecast.
Both headline and core CPI rose only 0.2% over the past two months, bringing annual inflation to:
2.7% year-over-year (headline CPI)
2.6% year-over-year (core CPI)
That’s the lowest core inflation reading since early 2021.
Inflation is the main reason the Fed holds rates high. If inflation is falling, the Fed has more room to cut rates without triggering a price surge again.
Even better? Shelter costs—the category that carries huge weight in inflation data—barely moved:
Shelter makes up 35% of headline CPI
Shelter makes up 44% of core CPI
Shelter inflation rose only 0.2% over two months
That’s a strong sign that housing inflation is cooling, and housing costs are a major part of what the Fed watches.
For buyers in Lincoln, Gold River, and Folsom, cooler inflation is one of the most important ingredients for mortgage rates to trend downward long-term.
Builder confidence improved slightly, with the NAHB index rising to 39.
Still below 50 (which indicates growth), but better than expected.
Builders are also still offering incentives, and a large share reported doing so—67% of builders are offering some form of incentive, the highest since the pandemic era.
In Lincoln, where new construction plays a major role, incentives like temporary rate buydowns or closing cost credits can create real opportunities—especially for buyers trying to lower their initial monthly payment.
In Folsom and Gold River, where resale activity is strong and inventory can be tighter, builder incentives may not dominate—but they still shape market behavior by giving buyers alternatives.
Here’s the part most people don’t realize:
The Fed controls the Fed Funds Rate, which is the short-term rate banks charge each other. Mortgage rates are more closely tied to long-term bond yields (especially the 10-year Treasury).
That means mortgage rates can stay elevated even when the Fed cuts.
However, cooling inflation and weakening job data are exactly the kinds of trends that typically lead the bond market to settle down—which can translate into mortgage rate improvements.
So even if January isn’t another rate cut, the broader economic direction still supports better affordability conditions ahead.
Here’s the practical summary:
✅ Inflation is cooling faster than expected
✅ Jobs data shows the labor market weakening
✅ The Fed has already started easing policy
✅ Mortgage rates may gradually improve
✅ Builder incentives remain strong
✅ Inventory will tighten again as the spring market approaches
If rates dip again and affordability improves, more buyers will jump back in—which could increase competition quickly.
So if you’re considering:
buying in Lincoln
upgrading in Gold River
refinancing in Folsom
…this is the time to get prepared, not the time to wait until everyone else wakes up.
At Pacific National Lending, we’re a mortgage brokerage—meaning we don’t rely on one lender’s pricing or one bank’s loan options. We compare multiple lenders to find the loan that fits your goals, whether you're buying, refinancing, or trying to build a strategy around the next rate drop.
If you're planning to purchase or refinance in Lincoln, Gold River, or Folsom, let’s get ahead of the market.
📞 Call us: (877) 536-3076
🌐 Visit: pacificnationallending.com
Because when rates move, the buyers who are already pre-approved are the ones who win.
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