Published on Mar 28, 2026
The latest economic reports are starting to tell a consistent story: the labor market is losing momentum. Hiring is slowing, unemployment is creeping up, and job seekers are taking longer to find work. At the same time, housing forecasts remain surprisingly positive, with home values expected to continue rising over the next year.
For buyers and homeowners in Roseville, Elk Grove, and Folsom, this combination creates a unique window of opportunity. A cooling labor market can influence mortgage rates in a favorable direction, while steady home price growth reinforces long-term investment potential.
At Pacific National Lending, we break down these national trends into what actually matters for your local market. Here’s what you need to know.
The most recent Jobs Report delivered a surprise—and not a good one. Instead of adding jobs, the economy lost 92,000 positions, missing expectations by a wide margin. Forecasts had called for roughly 60,000 new jobs, making the result a significant downside miss.
The unemployment rate also ticked higher, moving from 4.3% to 4.4%.
But the bigger story isn’t just one bad month—it’s the trend.
Revisions to prior months showed that December and January job numbers were adjusted lower by nearly 70,000 jobs. That continues a pattern we’ve seen throughout the past year: initial job reports often look stronger than they actually are once updated.
Average job growth has now slowed to about 13,000 jobs per month over the past year—and just 6,000 per month over the last three months.
Another key signal? The average time people remain unemployed has climbed to over 25 weeks, the highest level in several years. That means it’s taking longer for job seekers to find new employment.
For buyers in Roseville, where many households rely on stable employment in professional and service sectors, a cooling labor market can reduce inflation pressure—which is a key driver of mortgage rates.
In Elk Grove, where affordability is often top of mind, slower economic growth may support more favorable borrowing conditions over time.
And in Folsom, where higher-priced homes and larger loan sizes are common, even small improvements in interest rates can make a major difference in monthly payments.
Separate data from ADP painted a slightly more optimistic picture, showing that private employers added around 63,000 jobs in February—beating expectations.
But again, the details matter.
Nearly all of the gains came from small businesses. Medium-sized companies actually reduced jobs, and large employers added only modestly.
That imbalance suggests that hiring is not broad-based. Instead, it’s concentrated in specific pockets of the economy.
There’s also another important shift happening: wage growth for people switching jobs is shrinking. While job switchers still earn more than those who stay put, the gap between the two has narrowed to its smallest level on record.
That’s a big deal.
When switching jobs no longer delivers a significant pay increase, it signals that the labor market is becoming less competitive—and that employers are gaining leverage.
Looking beyond payroll reports, other indicators are telling the same story.
Layoffs are rising. Nearly 50,000 job cuts were announced in February alone, following over 100,000 in January. Combined, those totals rank among the highest early-year layoffs since the financial crisis.
Hiring plans, meanwhile, have dropped sharply. Companies have announced significantly fewer future hires compared to last year.
Job openings have also declined, and unemployment claims remain elevated over time. While initial claims are still relatively low, continuing claims—which track how long people stay unemployed—have increased.
That tells us something important: people aren’t necessarily losing jobs at a rapid pace, but once they do, it’s harder to find a new one.
Another modern factor complicates the data. Many displaced workers are turning to gig or freelance work instead of filing for unemployment benefits. That means traditional unemployment metrics may understate the true level of labor softness.
The labor market isn’t collapsing—but it is clearly cooling. And that matters because a softer labor market typically supports lower interest rate pressure over time.
While labor data is weakening, housing continues to show resilience.
Home prices dipped slightly on a monthly basis but remain higher than they were a year ago. The annual pace of appreciation has slowed modestly, but the overall trend is still positive.
Even more encouraging, forecasts now call for home values to rise roughly 4% to 5% over the next year.
Why?
Because demand is still there.
Many buyers have been waiting on the sidelines, holding off during periods of higher mortgage rates. If rates improve—even slightly—that pent-up demand can return quickly.
In Roseville, where demand remains strong due to schools, amenities, and location, limited inventory could lead to increased competition if rates dip.
In Elk Grove, where buyers often look for value and space, improved affordability could bring more first-time buyers back into the market.
In Folsom, where higher-end homes dominate, even small shifts in demand can impact pricing quickly due to lower inventory turnover.
One of the most important takeaways is that real estate continues to be a reliable long-term investment.
Even modest appreciation can create meaningful financial gains. For example, a $500,000 home appreciating at 4% adds about $20,000 in value in just one year.
Over multiple years, that adds up significantly.
For homeowners in Folsom, that means protecting and growing equity in higher-value properties. In Roseville, it reinforces the long-term benefits of ownership. And in Elk Grove, it shows how even entry-level purchases can build wealth over time.
Several key reports are coming up that could influence mortgage rates and housing activity:
Markets are also watching geopolitical developments and energy prices, which can influence inflation expectations and bond yields.
Mortgage bonds recently weakened due to inflation concerns tied to global events, and Treasury yields are trading within a new range. That means rates could move in either direction depending on upcoming data.
Here’s the practical takeaway for buyers in Roseville, Elk Grove, and Folsom:
The labor market is cooling, which can support better mortgage conditions
Home prices are still expected to rise, even if growth is moderate
Inventory remains limited in many desirable areas
If rates improve, buyer competition could increase quickly
This creates a window of opportunity—but only for buyers who are prepared.
At Pacific National Lending, we are a mortgage brokerage—not a bank. That means we work with multiple lenders to find the best loan options for your specific situation.
We help clients across Roseville, Elk Grove, and Folsom with:
Conventional, FHA, VA, and Jumbo loans
First-time homebuyer strategies
Down payment assistance programs
Refinance planning
Self-employed and complex income scenarios
Our focus is simple: give you clear answers, real numbers, and a strategy that works in today’s market—not last year’s.
The economy is shifting, and the labor market is clearly losing some of its strength. But housing remains resilient, and long-term fundamentals are still solid.
For buyers and homeowners in Roseville, Elk Grove, and Folsom, this is not a market to sit back and wait—it’s a market to prepare for.
Because when rates move—and they will—the buyers who are ready will be the ones who win.
If you’re thinking about buying, refinancing, or just want to understand your options, Pacific National Lending is here to help you make smart, confident decisions in a changing market.
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