Published on Aug 10, 2025
Pacific National Lending – August 2025
The latest jobs report didn’t just raise eyebrows—it shook the market. July’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) numbers came in far weaker than expected, sending a clear signal that the job market is cooling. That surprise has the bond market now betting big—93% probability—on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.
And for Roseville homebuyers? That means mortgage rates just dipped to their lowest level of the year, hovering around 6.57% for a 30-year fixed loan.
The U.S. added only 73,000 jobs in July, missing expectations. The unemployment rate nudged higher from 4.1% to 4.2%, which isn’t catastrophic—but the revisions were the real bombshell.
May and June’s job numbers were slashed by a combined 258,000 jobs, leaving both months with near-zero employment growth. That’s essentially no net job growth for the past quarter.
For the Federal Reserve, this is a big deal. The Fed’s mandate is to balance inflation control with full employment, and this data shows a much weaker labor market than previously thought. Combine that with the recent resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler—opening the door for another Trump appointee—and the likelihood of a September rate cut has skyrocketed.
Before the report, markets were split on whether we’d see a September cut. Afterward, the odds jumped from 39% to 93%. That shift sent bond yields lower, and mortgage rates followed suit.
In Roseville, top-tier borrowers can now find 30-year fixed rates in the mid-6% range, a level we haven’t seen in months. This could be the window that many buyers and refinancers have been waiting for.
Nationally, active housing inventory rose 25% year-over-year in July, but we’re still below pre-pandemic levels. Inventory increases are not uniform—some regions are flooded with listings while others are still tight.
In Roseville, inventory remains competitive, but the recent drop in rates could push more buyers into the market before fall. While national home price growth slowed to 0.1% in June—the slowest for that month since 2008—forecasts still call for around 4% growth over the next year, fueled by expectations of falling mortgage rates.
Lower rates mean more purchasing power. If you’ve been waiting for a break in the market, this could be it. The combination of weaker job growth, a likely Fed rate cut, and easing mortgage rates makes now an ideal time to:
Get Pre-Approved so you’re ready to act when the right home comes along.
Refinance if your current rate is in the high 6s or above.
Lock In a Rate before market volatility returns.
At Pacific National Lending, we help Roseville buyers and homeowners navigate these market shifts with confidence. Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer, upgrading, or refinancing, we’ll guide you through your options so you can take advantage of today’s lower rates.
📞 Call us today at (877) 536-3076
🌐 Visit pacificnationallending.com
With a September rate cut looking more and more likely, this calm in the mortgage market might not last long. Let’s get your financing locked in before the next wave of market moves.
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